Could US Aid Freeze Trigger Pandemics?

For almost 100 years, the United States has worked with global partners to provide aid to fight emerging communicable diseases and pandemics such as HIV, Ebola, malaria, and polio. Through its membership in the World Health Organization (WHO) and other initiatives such as President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), and UNAID the U.S. has worked in partnership with nearly 200 countries to provide essential vaccinations, develop and implement prevention programs, conduct research, and promote food and health security.

Upon assuming office as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed several executive orders. One of them led to the temporary freezing of foreign aids for 90 days, pending review. That impacted the operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—one of the largest global aid organizations. While U.S. foreign aid is less than 0.1% of federal budget, the ultimate cost to withdrawing from the global fight against infectious diseases is much greater.

Black communities across the globe, especially in Africa benefit from USAID in various ways that not only contribute to their well-being but also make the rest of the world safer. As a result, they are among the hardest hit by the fund freeze. Some of the immediate impacts of President Trump’s fund freeze include:

Suspension of humanitarian aid in hard-to-reach conflict areas including Madagascar, Mauritania, Cameroon, DRC, and CAR by the UN Humanitarian Air Services (UNHAS)
Closure of soup kitchens in war-torn Sudan
As many as 110 million children in poorer nations may lose access to polio vaccines during the 90-day work freeze, potentially reversing years of progress in some countries
Disruption in the effective screening for the highly contagious Sudan Virus, a variant of Ebola, at Ugandan airports and two border crossings
The International Organization for Migration has paused its efforts to assist victims of human trafficking worldwide
Millions of Black adults living with HIV across the globe may face difficulties accessing the medication they need

Beyond the ongoing disruptions to humanitarian aid, there is the danger that freezing aid could facilitate the rapid global of the next pandemic. For example, it took the COVID-19 pandemic around two to three months to spread across the globe because of the measures taken to slow its spread including screening and quarantine. These measures were possible because of the availability of funds dedicated for pandemic preparedness. So, what happens when these funds are suddenly cut off?

The importance of funding in pandemic preparedness

The world is frequently described as a global village because of how easily people and goods can move from one country or region to another—and that also means diseases can spread faster without preparedness to stop them. Therefore, a modern and interconnected world is as strong as its weakest health system in regard to stopping the next pandemic.

The Global Fund was initiated to fight pandemics and has been investing in preparedness and response activities for over two decades. About one-third of the investments made by Global Fund is to support global health security. The importance of this effort was demonstrated during the COVID-19 response. With increased resources, the Global Fund is well-positioned to enhance pandemic preparedness and response efforts

The best way to prepare for the next pandemic is to invest in people, programs, and systems that will deal with existing threats. The G20 High level Independent Panel in 2021 proposed an annual contribution of $15 billion and explained this can help prevent the next pandemic.

According to McKinsey and Company, the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic cost the world over $16 trillion which makes the annual $15 billion worth it. Investing in pandemic preparedness can save the world trillions of dollars in economic loses and even save us more in human loses—which is unquantifiable.

The action taken by the Trump administration to freeze global aid has already put a dent on pandemic preparedness. In the words of Democratic Senator Chris Coons, eliminating USAID would make the US “less safe”—which clearly goes against Trump’s mantra of making America great. Here are 5 disease that could easily return as a pandemic affecting the entire world due to the financial freeze:

HIV: according to UNAIDS, global AIDS-related deaths can spiral past 6 million with if aid is cut off.
Ebola: the highly contagious virus can easily jump from one country to another and spark a pandemic if there’s no more funding to continue surveillance.
Measles: there has been a resurgence of this virus in Texas and New Mexico, starting with the unvaccinated. Without funding, more people will be in the unvaccinated category.
Tuberculosis: surveillance and free treatment has helped to contain this bacterium from spreading out of control. That could change with the fund freeze.
Polio: as of 2022, the wild poliovirus type 2 and type 3 have been eradicated from three WHO regions. However, the presence of this virus elsewhere means it can resurface in regions where it has previously been eradicated.

The urgent need for new financial framework for pandemic preparedness

The World Health Assembly in 2021 declared its intention to form an Intergovernmental Negotiation Body to draft agreement on pandemic preparedness and response known informally as the pandemic accord. The preliminary draft of the future pandemic accord was published in 2023.

The goal of the accord is to address the problem of unequal access to vaccines, tests, and other pandemic-related protective and supplies, using the lessons of the COVID-19. It also proposed a system for information sharing on outbreaks. Future pandemic preparedness financial framework must plan for:

Preparedness
Health services
Innovation in screening and treatment
Workforce training and development
Improving social determinants of health

No doubt, the current pandemic preparedness financing framework lacks equity. The WHO has proposed that ministries of finance of every nation must consistently include pandemic preparedness and response into national budget plans as a recurring investment. Consequently, it should be treated as part of government strategies instead of miscellaneous costs that can be axed during fiscal crises.

The best time to prepare for the next pandemic is now. Leveraging the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world should be increasing funding for pandemic preparedness rather than cutting funding. If we must stand a chance against the next pandemic, it must be a collective partnership involving the government, private, and social sectors.

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